Pitfalls in estimates of the relationship between stock returns and inflation

Empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis give conflicting results, regardless of whether income growth is accommodated in the estimates. This paper shows theoretically and empirically that standard methods of testing the Fisher hypothesis give biased results and that the bias depends on the specification of the Fisher equation, the process governing inflation, measurement of inflation expectations, and the time aggregation of the data. Alternative tests show that share markets take several years to adjust to innovations in inflation and therefore that the Fisher hypothesis cannot be maintained. Helpful comments and suggestions from Hans Christian Kongsted, Darrel Turkington and seminar participants at the University of Western Australia, and University of Konstanz and, particularly, two referees, are gratefully acknowledged.     

波导介质层PBG结构滤波器的优化设计

在辛体系下利用精细积分对矩形波导纵向排列介质层PBG结构进行了分析,并对滤波器进行了优化设计.采用棱单元对波导的横截面进行离散,然后导向哈密顿体系,运用基于黎卡提微分方程的精细积分求出一段介质层和一段空气层的出口刚度阵,再利用区段合并以对问题求解.在此基础上采用序列线性规划法对模型进行求解,得到了滤波性能最优的设计参数.算例表明本文方法具有精确、高效的优点.     

Linear Correlation and EVT: Properties and Caveats

Due to the current credit crisis, critical questions are beingasked concerning some of the quantitative methods used in riskmanagement under the Basel II proposals. In this paper I havegiven a critical look at Extreme Value Theory and Copulas. Boththeir potential applications and the possible caveats are discussed,and this mainly with the subprime crisis as a background.     

Optimal designs for generalized linear models with biased response

This paper is concerned with the search for locally optimal designs when the observations of the response variable arise from a weighted distribution in the exponential family. Locally optimal designs are derived for regression models in which the response follows a weighted version of Normal, Gamma, Inverse Gaussian, Poisson or Binomial distributions. Some conditions are given under which the optimal designs for the weighted and original (non-weighted) distributions are the same. An efficiency study is performed to find out the behavior of the D-optimal designs for the original distribution when they are used to estimate models with weighted distributions.     

The potential impact of markets for irrigation water in Italy and Spain: a comparison of two study areas*

The viability of irrigated systems in Southern Europe is closely linked to efficient institutional settings and water‐allocation mechanisms. A significant, although not widely used, mechanism for water allocation is an intra‐sectorial water market. The objective of this paper is to evaluate to what extent water markets may contribute to the improvement of the efficiency of water allocation and to the profitability of irrigated agriculture. The related issues of water allocation among farm types and farm specialisation are also addressed. The analysis is based on a basin‐level linear programming model, comparing the situation with and without a market. It includes both fixed and variable transaction costs and estimates their combined effects on market performances. The model is applied in two areas in Southern Italy and Spain, and simulates the behaviour of different farm types, derived from cluster analysis on a sample of farms in each area. The paper confirms that water markets could potentially improve the economic efficiency of water use, in terms of higher profit per hectare, given limited water availability. The potential improvements are associated with a more intense specialisation of farms and are strongly differentiated among farmers, particularly where significant restrictions to water availability occur. This corroborates the expectations of institutional difficulties in implementing water markets. However, the exchanges, and consequently the potential effects of water markets, are heavily affected by the actual level of water availability, as well as the size and the structure (fixed vs. proportional) of transaction costs. The paper calls for a more in‐depth analysis of the connections between market performances and institutional settings, as related to the issue of water‐agriculture policy design and coordination.     

林业上市公司资本结构及其影响因素的实证研究

利用主成分分析方法将反映林业上市公司资本结构影响因素的总资产、总资产增加率等15个指标归纳为两个主成分(“公司规模与盈利性”、“股权结构与成长性”),并以这两个主成分为解释变量,以资本结构度量指标为被解释变量进行多元线性回归分析,以测度这两个主成分影响林业上市公司资本结构的方向和程度。     

Cost implications of improving food safety in the Dutch dairy chain

This paper examines control measures for improving food safetyin the dairy chain, using an integer linear programming model.The chain includes feed (compound feed production and delivery),farm (dairy farm) and dairy processing (transport and processingof raw milk, delivery of pasteurised milk) blocks. Results showthat 65 per cent of the maximum possible food safety improvementcan be achieved at relatively low extra cost per ton of milk(4.27), fairly evenly distributed across the blocks. Highersafety levels can be attained by increasing the farm block'scontribution, but at much higher extra cost (44.37 for the maximumattainable).     

引入MATLAB进行线性代数教学的探究

分析了我国线性代数教学的现状,提出了在线性代数教学中结合MATLAB软件教学,并讨论题必要性,首先应用MATLAB在线性代数教学中可以使得抽象问题形象化;其次应用数学知识对实际问题进行建模通过数学软件使得求解变为可能;这些都以实际例子加以解释说明。最后提出结合Matlab进行线性代数教学以后的发展方向和存在的困难。     

中国农村居民旅游消费的多元线性回归分析

进入新世纪,中国旅游业进入了战略转型时期,由于国际旅游市场竞争日趋激烈与金融危机的冲击,入境游明显受挫以及国内旅游需求日益增长,国内旅游逐渐在我国的旅游市场上占据主导地位。过去,在我国的旅游消费群体中,主要消费群体为城镇居民,因而人们更多地将目光集中在对城镇居民的旅游消费研究上。但近几年来,农村居民的旅游人数和旅游花费也在显著增长。文章通过对我国农村居民旅游消费进行多元线性回归分析,阐述了我国农村居民的旅游消费状况,研究了各种因素对我国农村居民旅游消费的不同影响,为策划国内旅游市场未来的发展提供了可供参考的政策建议,并预测未来的旅游消费情况,试图找到挖掘我国农村居民旅游消费市场的巨大潜力的有力措施。     

西安世园会餐饮服务设施配置方案浅析

规划餐饮服务设施点是为了在世园会期间,解决游客高峰期就餐难的问题。首先根据世园会各大景点的布局,运用线性目标函数法,对餐饮服务设施点的位置进行分析研究。然后分析了人流量的分布和游客的购买概率,对服务设施点分布位置进行优化。同时,运用绿色物流配送流程保证服务质量和效率,以满足游客的需求。最后,阐述了在达到餐饮服务要求的基础上,服务设施点进行扩大化利用。